The West is facing historic droughts but what about the rest of the U.S.

A report this week from the inaugural edition of the journal Science Advances showed that the Southwest and Great Plains could be looking at the worst drought to grip the area in a thousand years.

The region, much of which has already been in a drought for most of the past 14 years could be facing a drought that eclipses everything in human memory. According to the researchers it could even eclipse the 13th century droughts that are believed to have caused the decline of the Ancient Pueblo People of the Colorado Plateau.

“Changes in precipitation, temperature and drought, and the consequences it has for our society–which is critically dependent on our freshwater resources for food, electricity and industry–are likely to be the most immediate climate impacts we experience as a result of greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in a statement.

From the information provided it appears that the team tried hard to find a scenario which didn’t result in record setting drought, but no matter what model they tried or simulations they ran, the results were largely the same.

“The surprising thing to us was really how consistent the response was over these regions, nearly regardless of what model we used or what soil moisture metric we looked at. It all showed this really, really significant drying,” said lead author Benjamin I. Cook of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

What is not immediately clear, assuming that desalinization is used as a response to the water shortage, is that the coastal states will be much worse off than any other part of the United States. In some cases the region could be safer and more stable than other, wetter, regions.

The National Climate Report, published in 2014, doesn’t paint a very rosy picture for any part of the United States.

According to the website “a team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.”

That report too predicted extreme heat and drought conditions for the Southwest. Additionally, the report predicts increased temperatures and heatwaves for most of the country, along with reduced water supplies for the Great Plains states, Hawaii, and the Northwest. Sea level rises and flooding are expected in Hawaii, the Northeast and Southeast, declines in agricultural production and fisheries are expected in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Northwest, Alaska.

Virtually all regions face heavier storms and, in one way or another increased damage to infrastructure including energy systems. Transportation and food security will also be an issue as will increasing and largely unpredictable migration of people looking for safety and security.

These predictions are largely the same as other reports focusing on individual regions and possible consequences. For example, a December 2014 report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states that many eastern coastal cities are at or near the tipping point beyond which coastal flooding becomes inevitable.

So, while the warnings about the looming drought in the Western U.S. may be alarming, it is not clear that there are many better places to be.

 

Be social, please share!

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblrmail

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *