How to deny climate change in the face of certain evidence

2014 was the hottest year on record. At least according to NASA, the National Climate Data Center, and the Weather Channel. However, there is still plenty of room for error. Climate change skeptics are doing their best to find new ways to deny the facts.

Robert Tracinski of The Federalist is a trailblazer in this regard. In his four-page article, he gives a number of reasons that invalidate the idea of 2014 being the hottest year on record. “We don’t have thermometer measurements going back that far,” said Mr. Tracinski. This is true. Although Renaissance scientists first developed the thermometer in the early 1600s, climate records began to be kept in 1880. Is 135 years really enough time to determine anything significant?

Mr. Tracinski continues to say that there have been several periods with temperatures even warmer than they are now. He is referring to the Eemian interglacial period of some 130,000 to 115,000 years ago. Mr. Tracinski does not address the fact that civilization only began 5,000 years ago. Or the fact that there were no thermometers then either.

Another strategy to denying climate change is to beat scientists at their own statistical games. The Daily Mail has recently released an article revealing that NASA is only 38 percent sure that 2014 was the hottest year on record. The methodology used by NASA to calculate the accuracy of their statements involves a certain margin of error on account of random measurement noise.

In fact, that 38 percent refers to the statistical likelihood that 2014 was hotter than 2010. The two years only have a difference of 0.02 degrees Celsius, according to a paper by  Professor James Hansen from Columbia University who was responsible for the data analysis. Compared with all of the years since 1880, 2014 has a 90 percent statistical likelihood of being the hottest year on record. Fortunately for climate change deniers, most people read headlines, not scientific reports.

Finally, one can always deny climate change with the classic “I’m not a scientist.” Alas, President Obama may have ruined that line of defense in his 2015 State of the Union address:

“I’ve heard some folks try to dodge the evidence by saying they’re not scientists; that we don’t have enough information to act. Well, I’m not a scientist, either. But you know what – I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities. The best scientists in the world are all telling us that our activities are changing the climate, and if we do not act forcefully, we’ll continue to see rising oceans, longer, hotter heat waves, dangerous droughts and floods, and massive disruptions that can trigger greater migration, conflict, and hunger around the globe. The Pentagon says that climate change poses immediate risks to our national security. We should act like it.”

Never fear! The Paris summit on climate change is still months away. There is still plenty of time to come up with new ways to deny the evidence.

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