Tropical storms to claim more territory as equator expands

Tropical storms to claim more territory as equator expands

A new study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association reports that tropical storms are moving further north and south of the equator, consistent with climate warming trends.

Tropical storms are striking areas further north of the tropics and culminating their most devastating force in higher latitudes, a new study led by the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) says. The report, published in the journal Nature, also notes that this effect is more dangerous due to higher population concentrations in these northern areas as compared to the tropics.

Tropical cyclones — including hurricanes and typhoons — spiked intensity levels by a distance of 30 to 40 miles above and below the equator for the past 30 years, the study says.

On the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s website, the agency says: “As tropical cyclones move into higher latitudes, some regions closer to the equator may experience reduced risk, while coastal populations and infrastructure pole-ward of the tropics may experience increased risk. With their devastating winds and flooding, tropical cyclones can especially endanger coastal cities not adequately prepared for them.”

As meteorologists have worked determinately to isolate where tropical storms are most intense, various factors have evaded their pinpointing. Jim Kossin, the lead author of the paper and scientist working with NOAA’s National Climactic Data Center said, “the location where a tropical cyclone reaches its maximum intensity is a more reliable value and less likely to be influenced by data discrepancies or uncertainties.”

Previous studies have reported that since 1979, the tropics are actually expanding a distance of 1 to 3 degrees of latitude. This equals an expanse of approximately 70-100 miles in the northern and southern hemispheres.

“The rate at which tropical cyclones are moving toward the poles is consistent with the observed rates of tropical expansion,” says Kossin. “The expansion of the tropics appears to be influencing the environmental factors that control tropical cyclone formation and intensification, which is apparently driving their migration toward the poles.”

To show how researchers with the National Climactic Data Center constructed the project, Nature World News reported, “In order to track these storms’ paths over recent years, researchers used international data from 1982 to 2012. They then marked the peak intensity of each of the storms in order to see whether the hurricanes were traveling further afield.”

One aspect the study brings to light is many of the areas above and below the equator with higher coastal populations than in the tropics are unprepared for storms with these intensity levels as was seen with Hurricane Sandy crushing New York City in 2012.

Researchers at MIT who helped with the release of the study said that the trend “seems consistent with a warming climate.”

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