The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) reports that the melting of a comparatively tiny ice volume on East Antarctica’s shore could bring about a continual ice flow into the ocean, leading to an “unstoppable” sea-level rise for many years to come. The results are based on computer simulations of the Antarctic ice flow utilizing enhanced data of the ground profile beneath the ice sheet.

“East Antarctica’s Wilkes Basin is like a bottle on a slant,” posits lead-author Matthias Mengel, “once uncorked, it empties out.”

The Wilkes Basin is the biggest region of marine ice on rocky ground in East Antarctica. Currently, a rim of ice at the coast buttresses the ice behind it. Ice melting, caused by warming oceans, could make this rather tiny cork vanish, triggering a long term sea-level rise of hundreds of centimeters.

“Until recently, only West Antarctica was considered unstable, but now we know that its ten times bigger counterpart in the East might also be at risk,” notes co-author Anders Levermann, who is head of PIK’s research area Global Adaptation Strategies.

Complete ice flow from the impacted region in East Antarctica takes five thousand to ten thousand years in the simulations. However, once begun, the flow would gradually but mercilessly persist until the whole basin is empty.

“This is the underlying issue here,” explains Mengel. “By emitting more and more greenhouse gases we might trigger responses now that we may not be able to stop in the future.”

The study’s findings are described in greater detail in the journal Nature Climate Change.