Predictions for the future of tablets are uncertain as the market begins to change.
iPad sales have been stagnant two straight quarters now, and during the June quarter, Apple sold 13.3 million units, a 9.2% drop from the same quarter a year ago. While statements about the end of the tablet era are premature, iPad sales are in fact down, well below analyst expectations.
As with anything, context is important. The iPad is essentially a cross between a modern day smartphone and a PC and effectively ushered in an entirely new product category. Though many companies, Microsoft in particular, had been championing tablets for quite some time, the tablet market never quite took off until Apple entered the fray.
But the iPad was never cut out to replace the PC. It is a great device for info and entertainment on a larger screen and on the go, but it still can’t match the power and versatility of a desktop or laptop as a primary workstation. While also better than iPhone in some areas, there is no reason to upgrade every two years, since the iPad is significantly more expensive. And cell phones are infinitely more friendly for those who want mobility.
iPads are a niche device, a product unto itself with inherent limitations. Its strength is also its greatest weakness: a device which rides the road firmly between the iPhone and the Mac.
And not everyone needs a tablet. Most people get a tablet as a “+1”; they already have a series of Apple products and get one for additional versatility. The most recent data suggests that tablet penetration in the U.S. is now at about 45%. And for college students, we see that tablet penetration still lags behind video game consoles, printers, smartphones, laptops, and even digital cameras.
The iPad may very well be taking us into a post PC era, but it is important to remember that the device is its own product category with its own peculiarities. The tablet era is relatively new and, consequently, it is simply far too soon to make any predictions about the fate of the iPad. Two slow quarters should not be used to gauge future performance. The true test will come with the 2014 holiday season.
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