Who will replace Bernanke?
The White House is reportedly in the process of producing a list of replacements for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, according to various reports.
According to White House officials, senior advisers have begun assembling a short list of candidates to replace Bernanke when he retires in January 2014. According to sources close to the president, the search remains in the early stages and there is no clear front-runner. Treasury secretary Jacob Lew is said to be overseeing the production of the list and is working closely with other White House and Treasury officials.
The report comes as markets around the world reacted to news that the Federal Reserve is considering scaling back portions of its economic stimulus package, a move that could place a squeeze on markets that remain cautious. In series of public remarks issued this week, the Federal Reserve’s top officials attempted to reassure anxious investors that the central bank would continue to maintain low interest rates despite its plan to slowly divest itself from its massive $85-billion-month bond program. Despite their best efforts, the Dow slid Friday, capping a quarter marked by heightened volatility as investors positioned themselves for the announced changes. Meanwhile, bond yields spiked, increase the average interest rate for 30-year-fixed loans.
In a series of statements released over the course of the week, Fed officials attempted to issue a note of caution. Officials suggested that recent market volatility indicated investors and stock stock market had interpreted their message incorrectly, and the remarks amounted to an effort to set the record straight.
Attention to the Federal Reserve economic policy was amplified over the past week when Bernanke outlines a timetable for ending the massive bond purchase program. The program, which was originally intended as a temporary stimulus, was the Fed’s most aggressive attempt to drive down long term interest rates. It has long been credited with lowering the cost of mortgages and boosting demand for housing, which plunged during the 2008 financial crisis.
Speaking last week Bernanke said he expects the economy will continue to grow at a slow pace, although the pace of growth will allow the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back its bond purchases this year. The program, according to Bernanke, is slated to end when the nation’s rate of unemployment hits 7 percent, which is expected to occur sometime in 2014. The Fed chairman also noted that the board intends to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero until the unemployment rate hits 6.5 percent or inflation rises to 2.5. A majority of the Fed officials say they do not expect this to occur until 2015, and possibly longer.
Earlier this year stocks hit near-record highs, leaving some investors to wonder whether the Fed’s economic stimulus program was simply a simple attempt to keep the U.S. economy propped up. Corporate profits, in addition to stock buybacks, seem to increase the the perception that the U.S. fiscal cliff had receded. However, much of the year’s optimism was buoyed by the fact the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates low, while simultaneously pumping in nearly $100 billion a month into the U.S. bond market.
The Fed’s stimulus program has captivated Capitol Hill, where Republicans have voiced concerns over the latest slate of economic policies. House Republicans have put forth FFOCUS Act of 2013, legislation aimed at stripping Federal Reserve officials and the Federal Open Market Committee of their key focus of encouraging “maximum employment.”
The debate over the Federal Reserve’s economic stimulus package comes as Senate Democrats continue to gain support from top Republicans for a domestic appropriations bill. According to a number reports, at least six to eight Republican have offered support for an appropriations bill aimed at spending nearly one trillion dollars over the course of the upcoming fiscal year. Among those supporting the bill include Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, and Senator Lamar Alexander, a Tennessee Republican.
President Barack Obama may be able to persuade Bernanke to serve a third term, although sources say it’s unlikely. Bernanke has already publicly said that he remains committed to serving out his current term, when he will then leave public service.
That said, Obama’s ability to convince Bernanke to remain head of the Federal Reserve may be irrelevant, according to some sources. His successor will face the difficult task of scaling down programs put in place during the time of the financial crisis. If the Fed changes policy too soon, it could undermine the recovery. If it waits too long, it could spur inflation or new asset bubbles. All the while, markets will keep a close eye and be on the lookout for any shift in tone and strategy.
Higher interest rate usually lead to lower levels of consumer and businesses spending, and the change could eventually hit the housing market, which has led the recovery. As investors adjust to the idea that the Fed may scale down its economic stimulus program, economic data will be coming increasingly important as it will show whether the change has had such an effect. In addition federal spending cuts, which took effect in March, could place additional pressure on economic growth as wages remaining essentially stagnant, and home prices still have yet to return to prerecession levels.
For Friday: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 114.89 points, or 0.8%, to 14909.60. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 6.92 points, or 0.4%, to 1606.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.38 points, or less than 0.1%, to 3403.25.
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