Bird flu and early rains contribute to fears of potential shortages for turkey and pumpkin.
Prices and supply of staple Thanksgiving food items, such as turkey and pumpkin, are not expected to be greatly affected this year. Fears of shortages and price hikes on popular items grow this time of year, but tend to balance themselves out.
ABC News reports that despite a breakout of Bird flu killing 8 million turkeys, a shortage is not expected. Richard Volpe, a professor and former retail food economist for the U.S Department of Agriculture says that one of the most effective things stores can do is sell turkey at a low cost, even if it means taking a loss. The low prices will lure in shoppers, causing them to spend money they expected to spend on a turkey, and use it toward other items.
The majority of turkeys that will be sold around Thanksgiving were slaughtered and frozen long before the Bird flu outbreak. Over three-quarters of turkeys sold in the holiday season are frozen whole ahead of time.
While prices on turkey are up 89 cents from last year, turkey prices, on average, have decreased around 60 cents in the last three weeks. Supply is far from scarce, but it is tight. Experts urge consumers to order or purchase their turkeys as early as possible.
Wal-Mart is expected to have more turkeys on hand than ever before, with prices lower than last year, according to spokesperson John Forrest Ales.
In previous years, fears of a pumpkin shortage have proved to be wrong. In Illinois, heavy rains cut this year’s pumpkin crop in half. Supply is expected to stay steady through the holidays, declining shortly after. By then, however, the demand for pumpkin decreases significantly. Similar to the turkeys, Wal-Mart’s pumpkin pies will decrease in price about 50 cents from last year.
The average cost for a 10 person Thanksgiving dinner is around $49, and has stayed in that range since 2011.