The world is experiencing a glut of oil and it is driving prices downward.
Current oil prices have dropped dramatically in the last few months, and at least one analyst says we haven’t reached the bottom as yet.
In a report on CNNMoney, David Kotok, the 72-year-old co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, says there is no evidence to suggest that oil prices have bottomed out. Kotok, an influential money manager, added we could see oil prices at $15 to $20 a barrel easily.
Oil prices, currently trading at around $42 a barrel haven’t reached those levels since 1999, when gasoline prices were below $1 per gallon. The cost of a barrel has already dropped 60%, causing gasoline prices to fall from $3.45 a year ago to around $2.66 per gallon now, according to AAA.
The reason is that the world is experiencing a glut of oil and currently has more than we need. OPEC is still refusing to cut production and balance the market despite an influx created by America’s energy boom.
If President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran goes through, relief of the sanctions against the country may release even more oil into the market and could greatly increase Iran’s output and bring much needed financial gain to that nation.
Unlike Iran, the Saudis’ have a large financial reserve and could hold prices down for a long time, minimizing Iran’s benefit from increased output. Iran’s cash levels can not match the Saudis’ in a price war.
Some crude oils are already trading near the $20 mark. Although it is a heavier crude and more difficult to refine, Western Canadian crude is currently trading in that range.
Also, as the end of the summer driving season nears, demand is expected to fall even more, which could also add pressure and bring oil prices down even further.
Kotok is warning investors to stay away from the oils stock market at this time. He added there will be a time to invest, but this isn’t it.
Meanwhile, consumers are certain to welcome any price drop at the pump.