The International Space Station (ISS) orbits Earth, acting as a testament to the human race that has made its home on this planet. Despite its greatness, the ISS is not self-sufficient and therefore needs regular supply deliveries from Earth. The most recent supply mission was undertaken by Russia when they sent up their Progress M-27M spacecraft. The routine trip took an erratic turn, however, when the spacecraft became unresponsive after hitting low Earth orbit. It now appears to be tumbling in a non-stable orbit and will experience an unplanned re-entry.

It is not yet clear when the spacecraft will arrive at its final destination, crashing into Earth’s surface. Current estimates, according to Wired, say that it will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere very early on May 8^th. This is just estimation, but it’s the best guess we’ve got at this point. Another burning question on everyone’s mind about the Progress spacecraft is not when but where it will make contact. Pieces of burning space junk would be a much scarier and dangerous thing if they were hurtling at an urban epicenter than if they fell into the ocean.

Unfortunately, since the time of impact of so uncertain, so is the place of impact. If scientists were to pin-point the spacecraft’s current location and velocity right now, they could map out its entire trajectory until it meets the Earth’s surface. Even so, there is no certainty that other factors might impact the spacecraft’s path and would therefore render all the calculations useless. If Progress was delayed even by one second, its point of impact would likely vary by 7km. Since the time estimation carries the “give or take 24 hours” quality, the place of impact is very uncertain at this point.