It is said that change creates opportunities. Although the Arctic has seen new lows in ice accumulation over the last four years and whatever global changes that portends, some see dollar signs in a less icy Arctic. The good folks over at Sailing the Arctic Race (STAR) say that, thanks to rapid climate change, it is now possible “for the first time in human history” to sail across the top of North America in one season.

Such an “extreme yacht race” would take place through the more-and-more accessible Northwest Passage a route which connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans through the Arctic Ocean. With the melting of pack ice due to climate change, the route became navigable to regular marine shippingin 2009 through most of the year.

The founder of the race, Robert Molnar, says that, under normal conditions, such a race could not happen. But despite his optimism, the editor of the Cruising World sailing magazine, Mark Pillsbury, characterized the idea as “improbable.” The 7,700 mile race of 2017, from New York City, USA to Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, will be exclusively in a fleet of “revolutionary” racing yachts constructed of something dubbed “volcanic fiber”.  A map is available online showing the route.

Despite changes to the pack ice, smooth sailing is not assured. Conditions “have been, and will remain, highly variable,” said the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Mark Serreze. His agency reported last month that, when sea ice in the Arctic reached its maximum for the year on February 25, it was the lowest extent ever recorded. At 14.39 million square kilometers, that is seven percent below the 1981 – 2010 average of 15.52 million square kilometers.

Serreze said that, by the time of the race, the route could be completely free of ice. Or “it may be choked with ice. A great deal will depend on the summer weather patterns.”