Ukraine peace deal not secured in Moscow

German and French leaders left Moscow late Friday night after a five-hour talk with Vladimir Putin, yet a peace deal has still not materialized as the U.S. and NATO reconsider supplying arms to Ukraine.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande had spoken with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko the night before in a last-chance effort to reach an agreement before E.U. and U.S. leaders meet in Munich on Saturday.

Officials in Kiev maintain that any agreement must adhere to the boundaries and terms of the September Accord, an affirmation at odds with the actions of the Russian president and rebel fighters.

Putin had proposed an adjusted cease-fire boundary based on gains by separatists in a letter to Mr. Hollande. The letter also proposed giving political autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk, the zones under debate.

Western officials are comparing this proposal to Abkhazia in Georgia and Transnistria in Moldova, breakaway regions which have substantial Russian military presence. Many diplomats fear that post-Soviet expansionism is at the base of Russian support rather than autonomy.

“This is not just about Ukraine. This is about Moldova, this is about Georgia, and if this continues then one will have to ask about Serbia and one will have to ask about the countries of the Western Balkans,” said Merkel.

There is also evidence that extending the conflict beyond the occupied zones does not have popular support, and it could be detrimental to separatists to try to push the conflict further. Though Putin’s political ambitions may be outside the realm of whether or not further incursions into western Ukraine are popular, it is nevertheless hard to carry on an unpopular war. This evidence might be a ray of hope in ending the conflict if Russia and eastern Ukraine do have a peaceful solution in mind.

The meeting between the three leaders produced no definite results, but both parties agreed to work on a “possible joint document” and Moscow called the talks “constructive and substantive.” They agreed to speak again by telephone on Sunday.

While Russia admits to supplying separatists with arms, it has continuously denied sending military personnel across the border to help fight in eastern Ukraine. In response, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk replied, “If they need, I can give them my glasses.”

Washington and NATO have shown a stronger inclination to send arms to Ukraine as sanctions have not seemed to deter the Russian and rebel leaders. However, many are afraid that increasing arms would not necessarily alleviate the situation.

“Are we sure that we would be improving the situation for the people in Ukraine by delivering weapons? Are we really sure that Ukraine can win against the Russian military machine?” stated German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen.

Meanwhile, a temporary cease-fire was agreed to in from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. in Debaltseve, a strategic railway hub where most of the fighting is now centered, to allow civilians to escape. More than 5,000 people have died so far in the conflict, but there is hope that a peaceful deal may still be achieved between Ukraine and Moscow.

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