Obama to give annual State of the Union address in 4th Quarter

Obama to give annual State of the Union address in 4th Quarter

President to address agenda in State of the Union

President Obama will make his seventh State of the Union address Tuesday night seizing the opportunity to summarize the accomplishments of his administration in the past year and setting the agenda for 2015 and beyond. With an eye on both his own legacy and laying the groundwork to support a Democrat campaign for the presidency in 2016, presumably by Hillary Clinton, the president will try to make the case to the American people that his policies are working in spite of what Democrats term “Republican obstructionism.”

That may be a more difficult sale this year as the president faces his first Republican-controlled Congress following the November mid-term elections that saw Republicans gain 13 seats in the House of Representatives and add nine seats to take control of the Senate. While President Bill Clinton famously acknowledged the rebuke the public gave his administration in the 1994 mid-term elections, promising to “tack to the middle,” President Obama seems unlikely to make such a move.

Over the past week, the White House has leaked hints about the proposals the president will make to Congress and to the American people as he begins what has been called “the fourth quarter” of his presidency. Tax hikes for the wealthy, including inheritance tax and an increase in the capital gains tax have already made the news in the past week, although the odds of such proposals making it through Congress are slim. President Obama was unsuccessful in similar attempts even when his party held the Senate.

The speech must address terrorism in Europe and at home, which will be a delicate moment for the president who claimed “Al-Queda is on the run” just two years ago during his campaign for a second term. The president’s continued reluctance to use the adjective “Islamic” to describe extremists and terrorists who self-identify as Muslims has gained attention and comment of late and pundits and reporters will listen carefully as Obama addresses the terror issue. His upcoming summit on terrorism and a focus on cyber-security will also be noted.

The president and British Prime Minister, David Cameron, met last week to pressure Congress to hold back on increased sanctions against Iran during the on-going talks to limit that country’s use of nuclear power. Above all, the address provides him with an opportunity to review the wind-down of the war in Afghanistan and to tout the nation’s humanitarian response to the ebola epidemic in Africa by sending troops to construct hospitals and clinics.

With an up-tick in his popularity in the past few weeks, the president will claim some credit for an economy that seems to be improving in some sectors, including lower gas prices. His domestic agenda will focus on the need for immigration reform and his plan to provide free tuition for students attending community colleges. Given the outbreak of violence after incidents in Ferguson, Missouri and New York, the president will no doubt address the perceived racism in the police and judicial system and suggest more reform. The president will reiterate his continuing opposition to the Keystone Pipeline in the midst of Republican leadership’s promise to advance the massive project. Education reform in the implementation of Common Core is divisive in both parties and may receive attention in the speech.

The president will use the speech to delineate sharp differences between his party and the Republicans who will control the Congress in the next two years as the 2016 campaign begins in earnest. By introducing legislation with little chance of passing, he will be able to label Congress, once again, as standing in the way of progressive policies aimed to help the middle class. While Senator Harry Reid (D-Nev.) served as Majority Leader of the Senate, he was a virtual veto for the president by withholding House bills from consideration by the Senate. With the Republican wins in the Senate, Reid has been replaced with Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ken.), bills, especially those certain to find opposition in the White House, will no longer be held on the Leader’s desk. Vetoes by the president will set the stage for debate in the next general election.

Following the president’s speech, first term senator from Iowa, Joni Ernst, will present the Republican response, at which point the commentariat and media will begin parsing the two speeches and making predictions about the president’s agenda and the likely response of the Repbulican-led Congress. Traditionally, the State of the Union address is used by the president to lay out his vision, but occasionally a president makes a definitive promise as President Lyndon Johnson did when he declared “War on Poverty” in his 1964 speech. At this late point in President Obama’s presidency, entering the seventh of his eighth year, his focus will naturally be on his legacy beyond that which he assured with his history-making election in 2008 as the first African-American president.

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