On paper at least, falling prices can create a false sense of security, but so-called deflation can actually squeeze the life-blood out of an economy, especially if consumers throttle back on spending and companies tighten their belts in order to remain profitable
Germany and France, two of the eurozone’s major economies and two countries which are feeling the weight of carrying the EU, could in effect hurt the positive growth of emerging countries. So says financial information company Markit, which, in its monthly survey of business activity, pointed out that the eurozone ended 2014 on a sour note despite progress in countries like Ireland and Spain, two countries in particular which were hit hard by the financial crisis.
The fear of policymakers is that the eurozone will soon suffer from deflation, or at worst falling prices, which can inhibit EU recovery even further. Particular concern regards Greece’s future in the eurozone. Many of the problems faced by the eurozone would be improved by economic growth. However, survey after survey shows that to be a distant prospect.
Not since the third quarter of 2013 has the overall rate of economic expansion been so weak. Markit estimates that the eurozone, which now numbers 19 countries following Lithuania’s adoption of the euro at the start of January, grew by a quarterly rate of 0.1 percent in the last three months of the year, continuing the trend of minimal growth since the recession ended in mid-2013.
Economists have reiterated that 2014 was a year in which recession was avoided by the narrowest of margins. And there is every possibility that renewed downturn will not be seen in 2015.
The current downturns in Italy and France are of particular concern to economists in addition to that of Germany, which has historically carried the Eu on its shoulders but whose own performance of late is stuttering.
On the other hand, recoveries in countries like Ireland and Spain, which are enjoying their best growth spells in years, risk being hammered by the ripple effect of the EU’s largest economies which are dealing with their own problems.
As a deterrent, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, recently stated that the ECB stands ready to pursue a comprehensive bond-purchase program like the one already involving financial institutions like the U.S. Federal Reserve.
And although the ECB has cut interest rates to record lows, it has held back from going full-tilt with the acquisiton of bonds. That said, the European Central bank is fully prepared to use bond-purchases as a type of stimulus package for the European Union in hopes it will get more money in circulation.
The European Central Bank’s target of annual price increases has always been set at just below 2 percent inflation. The reality in the EU is different: most recently the numbers reflect 0.3 percent, which is far below. Midweek figures are expected to demonstrate even further decline, which some naysayers are linking to the current decline in oil prices per barrel, which currently stand below $50.00 for the first time in nearly six years.
On paper at least, falling prices can create a false sense of security. However, so-called deflation can actually squeeze the life-blood out of an economy, especially if consumers throttle back on spending and companies tighten their belts in order to remain profitable.
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