Promised in “early 2015,” the Apple watch may be the most anticipated consumer electronic device to be released in this new year. But opinions are divided as to whether it will be a game-changer, like the iPod and iPhone before it, or just a novelty, purchased only by gear-heads and early adopters.

Quartz has already dubbed 2015 the “year of the Apple watch,”noting that it “has the potential to create new billionaires and to change the way people live.” With only six percent of those polled owning a wearable device, according to Morgan Stanley, the wearable market is poised for a breakout hit. And more than any other electronics company, Apple has the combination of marketing power and engineering know-how to push its smartwatch into the mainstream.

But other polls suggest choppy waters for Apple’s smartwatch rollout. The device will require an iPhone to work, yet only five percent of iPhone users say they are very likely to buy one. Only two percent said they were “extremely likely.” Of course, even just five percent of Apple’s customer base is 4 million people in the U.S. alone, so the device still could generate profits for Apple. But it would be a far cry from the revolution some observers are expecting.

Indeed, Business Insider reports that venture capitalist, Fred Wilson, an early backer of both Twitter and Zynga, has substantial doubts about the Apple watch.

“Not everyone will want to wear a computer on their wrist,” said Wilson. “Eventually, this market will be realized as the personal mesh/personal cloud, but the focus on wearables will be a bit of a head fake and take up a lot of time, energy, and money in 2015 with not a lot of results.”