Earth’s human population reaches new highs practically every year – at this moment, it’s said that 14% of everyone who’s ever been alive is alive right now. With the climate and environment buckling under the pressure of the swelling human population, some have wondered if some sort of population control might not be a short-term solution. No dice, say researchers from the University of Adelaide, who determined that even a world-wide catastrophe of previously unknown horrors would still see the population climb to 8.5 billion by the year 2100.

“We examined various scenarios for global human population change to the year 2100 by adjusting fertility and mortality rates to determine the plausible range of population sizes at the end of this century. Even a world-wide one-child policy like China’s, implemented over the coming century, or catastrophic mortality events like global conflict or a disease pandemic, would still likely result in 5-10 billion people by 2100,” says Professor Corey Bradshaw, Director of Ecological Modelling in the Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

The scientists created nine different models for various scenarios, ranging from “business as usual” – reduced fertility through family planning, education and birth control – all the way up to a global catastrophe that could wipe out as many as two billion people. Their findings suggest that not even the worst-case scenario would slow us down much.

“We were surprised that a five-year WWIII scenario mimicking the same proportion of people killed in the First and Second World Wars combined, barely registered a blip on the human population trajectory this century,” says Professor Barry Brook, Chair of Climate Change at the Environment Institute for this study.

The researchers still recommend reduced fertility through non-extreme measures – if done correctly, it could lead to several hundred million fewer mouths to feed by mid-century. Slowing human growth should still be a priority, they say, but won’t benefit anyone alive today.

“Our work reveals that effective family planning and reproduction education worldwide have great potential to constrain the size of the human population and alleviate pressure on resource availability over the longer term. Our great-great-great-great grandchildren might ultimately benefit from such planning, but people alive today will not,” said Brook.