According to geologists with the USGS’ Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, the lava flow heading toward Pahoa village has slowed its advance.

The flow originated from Kilauea’s Pu’u ‘O’o crater on June 27 and has been moving continuously since then, but geologists say the rate of advancement has slowed significantly. Since October 3, the lava has slowed to 94 yards per day.

Hawai’i County Civil Defense Officials report the flow moving northeast through an area of light vegetation, and attribute Saturday’s moderate smoke conditions to active burning around the flow’s leading edge. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s latest fly over shows a short, narrow break out from the flow’s north side: about 30 yards long and still behind the leading edge for now.

USGS geologists estimate the flow front and breakout together at 200 yards wide. Other breakouts have been observed farther upslope from the leading edge.

At the moment, the flow front has a 0.8-mile downhill run between it and Apa’a Street in Pahoa village, and with the current rate of advancement officials estimate the lava’s arrival on October 28. The advance rate has varied drastically in the last month however, and there is a high probability the forecast will change. Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s next fly over is scheduled for October 13.

According to Hawai’i County Civil Defense (HCCD), lava flow activity does not pose an immediate threat to area residents. If evacuation becomes necessary, HCCD says adequate and timely notice will be given for residents’ safe evacuation. Due to the flow’s unpredictable nature, however, locals are encouraged to listen for HCCD advisories on the radio.

An advisory was issued on Tuesday by Hawai’i State Department of Health urging the relocation of medically dependent residents downslope of the flow, saying that the uncertainty of this flow could impact local medical service. If Highway 130 were to be made impassable due to lava, medical supplies would be seriously limited and response times would be greatly delayed.