Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a new 1-10 scale to rank the Harmful Algae Blooms (HABs) that create massive ‘dead zones’ in aquatic environments across North America.

NOAA historically described the annual algae blooms in vague terms such as “significant” or severe. The organization hopes the new HAB Ranking system will help promote punlic awareness and understanding of the environmental dangers of algae blooms. In conjunction with weekly bulletins, NOAA research partners and and recreational users of freshwater systems can be advised of potential hazardous conditions.

“This NOAA model, resulting from a great collaboration, has been incredibly valuable to us as we work to eliminate blooms to protect human health, the Lake Erie ecosystem and its coastal economy,” said Jeff Reutter, Ph.D., director of Ohio State University’s Sea Grant program and Stone Laboratory. “In Ohio, as part of the Ohio Phosphorus Task Force II, we have used information from the NOAA model to help us target reductions in the amount of phosphorus going into the lake that should help us greatly reduce or eliminate the HABs.”

Lake Erie has garnered national attention in recent years for its massive harmful algae blooms. In 2011, a 2,000 square mile algae bloom covered the shallow lake wreaking havoc on the local ecosystem, what would now be considered a 10 on the HAB scale. This year, the conditions on Lake Erie are predicted to be a 5-6 out of 10, or ‘”significant”.

“Issuing and evaluating these seasonal forecasts improves our understanding of how the blooms form, which leads to strategies to reduce their impacts,” said Richard Stumpf, Ph.D., NOAA’s ecological forecasting applied research lead at National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. “Our academic partnerships also support us in making improvements to the forecast, further helping managers monitor the bloom, and informing the public of where and when they can best use this great lake.”

NOAA will continue to monitor and tweak its forecast as the summer continues, depending on factors such as water temperature and amounts of nitrogen and phosphorous detected in the lake. Peak growth of HABs in the Great Lakes usually occurs in September. NOAA is also expected to release reports for the Gulf of Mexico and the Chesapeake Bay in the upcoming weeks.