Regions not accustomed to tropical storms may see increased activity
If you live in the barren, Narnia-like tundra known as “the northeast,” your perhaps only saving grace is not having to fear tropical storms and hurricanes, for the most part. According to scientists from MIT and NOAA, however, that may be changing: Over time, the peak ranges for dangerous tropical cyclones appear to be spreading further north and south.
“The rate at which tropical cyclones are moving toward the poles is consistent with the observed rates of tropical expansion,” said said Jim Kossin, a scientist with NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. “The expansion of the tropics appears to be influencing the environmental factors that control tropical cyclone formation and intensification, which is apparently driving their migration toward the poles.”
Basically, the “tropics,” at least in a climate sense, are slowly creeping outward from the equator towards the poles. As go the tropics, so go the storms that we associate with them. That’s particularly bad news for places without much hurricane or tropical storm experience – due to inadequate preparation, the toll taken by a powerful storm could be especially devastating.
To conduct the study, the scientists used international data from 1982 to 2012, collected by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. They used the location of peak intensity of cyclones as a benchmark because it is a more consistent metric than statistics such as storm duration (duration calls into question when, exactly, a cyclone should be dubbed a “tropical storm”).
“Historical intensity estimates can be very inconsistent over time, but the location where a tropical cyclone reaches its maximum intensity is a more reliable value and less likely to be influenced by data discrepancies or uncertainties,” said Kossin.
As for the cause, the researchers are clear that it will require further studies and are quick to point out that there’s as of yet nothing to suggest human influence is a factor. However, given that 0cean temperatures between 82 and 86 degrees Fahrenheit are ideal for tropical cyclone genesis, it’s hard to ignore the impact of global warming on ocean temperatures. Other theories point to trade wind migration as a potential culprit.
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