A new study from the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) examines trends in future diets and what that means for agriculture and food prices.  The report starts out by noting that, currently, one-third of adults or 1.46 billion people in the world are obese or overweight.  Between 1980 and 2008, the number of people affected in high-income countries increased 1.7 times.  Meanwhile, over the same time period, the rate tripled in developing countries.

The over-consumption of food, coupled with lives that are increasingly sedentary, is producing large numbers of people who are overweight and obese.  The evidence is well-established: obesity, together with excessive consumption of fat and salt, is linked to the rising global incidence of non-communicable diseases including some cancers, diabetes, heart disease and strokes. What has changed is that the majority of people who are overweight or obese today can be found in the developing, rather than the developed, world.

Diets also matter for future demand for food. It should be easier to feed the expected global population of 8 billion in 2030, and 9 billion in 2050, if diets are moderate rather than high in livestock consumption. Any additional production of meat and dairy will probably have to come, in large part, from feed grains, with less energy consumed from grain and more from meat and milk. High demands for feed grains in the future will put pressure on land, water and fertiliser supplies, drive up costs of agricultural production, and make it more difficult for those on low incomes to afford an adequate diet.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), overweight and obesity are defined as abnormal or excessive fat accumulation that presents a risk to health. A crude population measure of obesity is the body mass index (BMI), a person’s weight (in kilograms) divided by the square of his or her height (in meters). A person with a BMI of 30 or more is generally considered obese. A person with a BMI equal to or more than 25 is considered overweight.

In an analysis of ODI’s report, CBS News reports that, in general, countries are not doing enough to combat the trends in overweight and obesity.  The report predicts that if current rates continue there will be a huge increase in people suffering certain types of cancer, diabetes, strokes and heart attacks, which will put an enormous stress on hospitals.  There are some countries that are making notable improvements, specifically South Korea and Denmark.  South Korea had a successful public education campaign 20 years ago that turned obesity rates around and Danish laws against trans-fatty acids are exceptionally strict.