Only "microbes in niche environments" will be able to survive the escalating temperatures.
If you were thinking about moving onto Mars after Earth’s hospitable years expired, you had better slow down: a recent press release from the University of East Anglia has indicated that astrobiologists believe Earth will be a habitable planet for another 1.75 billion years.
The findings, which were published Wednesday in the journal Astrobiology, were derived based on Earth’s current distance from the sun and “temperatures at which it is possible for the planet to have liquid water.” By examining planets outside of our solar system, scientists from the University of East Anglia school of Environmental Sciences – which is based in Norwich, United Kingdom – determined that Earth is currently in the “habitable zone” as far as temperatures and distance from the sun are concerned.
“This is the distance from a planet’s star at which temperatures are conducive to having liquid water on the surface,” said Andrew Rushby.
Of course, Earth’s residence in that “habitable zone,” as well as its ability to host life, is a temporary arrangement. Rushby noted that, “somewhere between 1.75 and 3.25 billion years from now,” (how’s that for a down-to-the-minute forecast?), Earth will pass from the so-called “habitable zone” into the sun’s “hot zone,” at which point temperatures will rise to an inhospitable level, oceans will evaporate, and all life on the planet would cease to exist.
Not the brightest outlook, but one that Rushby assures is inevitable. First, however, the planet will follow a rewinding theme of sorts as life disappears in reverse order of how it first came to be. Humans and other complex life forms will be the first to go, then flowering plants, then insects, and on and on. Eventually, Rushby thinks only “microbes in niche environments” will be able to survive the escalating temperatures. Humans could also reach inhabitable temperatures more quickly if climate change continues at its current clip.
So if humans are still around some 1.75 billion years from now, is there a plan for getting them off a dying planet? According to Rushby, the most promising habitable zone planets are well outside our solar system – 10 light years away, give or take – and our current space travel technology is not sufficient for transporting humans that far (Rushby says the trip would take hundreds of thousands of years). In that case, Mars is still the “best bet” as far as replacement planets are concerned. By the time Earth dies, Mars will be well into the habitable zone, where Rushby says it will remain until the sun supernovas in six billion years.
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