National Weather Service ‘potentially historic’ snowstorm forecast costs East Coast millions due to unnecessary shutdowns

National Weather Service ‘potentially historic’ snowstorm forecast costs East Coast millions due to unnecessary shutdowns

The snowstorm that wasn't cost the East Coast millions after unnecessary shutdowns.

After the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts of “potentially historic” snowstorms expected to hit the East Coast this week failed to come true, costs for unnecessary shutdowns have run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. New York City alone estimates $200 million lost to the weather that did not happen.

Director of the NWS Dr. Louis Uccellini admitted today that the agency did not stress strongly enough that there was uncertainty in its New York City blizzard forecast. They are also trying to determine how the term “potentially historic” ended up attached to the forecast, which led to media hype and possible unnecessary storm preparations. The word “historic” was repeated by Mayor Bill de Blasio during press conferences regarding the upcoming blizzard. He listed snow statistics as far back as the 19th century to justify closing roads and subways, and issuing threats that anyone out driving Monday night would be arrested.

Uccellini says there is uncertainty in any forecast, but he told a media conference on Tuesday that the NWS is working with “social scientists” about plans to better communicate serious forecasts in the future. He said that clearly his attempt to let people know about the uncertainty of the forecast was insufficient. A local forecast office used the word “historic” in the headline of a blizzard notification, a notice not vetted by the director or anyone in the national communications office.

According to Uccellini, if the forecast had been correct the snowfall amounts would have indeed been historic for New York and that they might still be record-setting for Boston.

The blame for the excessive hype about the forecast and the shutdown of the city for no good reason is being shared by NYC Mayor de Blasio and the NWS. Gary Szatkowski, a meteorologist in the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office, tweeted his “deepest apologies” to the decision makers and members of the general public who made decisions that relied on the forecasters getting it right, which they did not. It is possible that the “potentially historic” label came from Szatkowski’s office.

The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang documents that the NWS failed to communicate adequately that even the slightest movement of the storm to the east could drastically move snow totals downward. This is exactly what happened. The storm moved slightly to the east, sparing New York, but burying Boston, southern Connecticut and Long Island.

The National Weather Service launched a team of emergency forecasters, the Emergency Response Specialists (ERS), in 2012, but has failed to staff it and plans to phase it out. The program used experts in emergency weather for major storm situations, with the goal of helping brief decision makers and explain uncertainties in forecasts to the public. Bill Proenza, former director of the National Hurricane Center, says that there is no question that there would have been a different outcome if the ERS program had been in place for the current storm forecast.

Dan Sobien, an ERS from Tampa who was one of those instrumental in the launch of the program, said that the value of these forecasters far exceeds their cost. A complete national network would cost about $50 million per year, according to the original proposal. Sobien thinks the national cost impact would only be half that much, which would be about one-tenth of the economic loss suffered by New York City in the recent blizzard.

Chief Spokesperson for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Chris Vaccaro, said that the ERS program was never intended to last over three years. The idea was that the best practices would be adopted by NWS office. Proenza denies that the program had a firm end date. He says that even though the NWS may send in a meteorologist for an ERS-style briefing, this is not the same as having a full-time local forecaster who is familiar with the city.

The “potentially historic” snowstorm ended up 75 to 100 miles farther east than what was forecast. New Jersey state climatologist David A. Robinson says he thinks the whole affair will hurt the credibility of te national weather service. He said that “ultimately it comes down to this is an imperfect science.” Even though “tremendous strides” have been made in recent decades, there are still going to be forecasting errors made that have public repercussions.

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